Sunday, December 18, 2011

Kudankulam and cancer deaths

Kudankulam plant cannot be allowed to remain idle: PM
On Board PM's Special Aircraft, Dec 17 (PTI)

Prime Minister Manmohan Singh today said the Kudankulam Nuclear Power plant, whose commissioning has been stalled due to protests, cannot be allowed to remain "idle" when the nation has sunk an amount of Rs 14,000 crore on the project.

Unfortunately Hon'ble PM, the best is not good enough. Your experts are not good enough for nuclear power's unacceptable dangers.One million will die from cancer due to Fukushima say some experts and here are your experts saying nuclear is not likely to cause cancer! There you are. If you start the plant it will have grave consequences because it requires infallibility and the waste problem is insoluble. There are enough nuclear reactors in the world ready to cause catastrophes galore. Please do not be complicit in the creation of perfect murders that nuclear programmes cause. Thats deficit financing infinitely because no power will be forthcoming to society from the nuclear power programmes when all input output auditing is done till their decommissioning and their waste management energies are fully accounted for. Abandon nuclear power and hand over the work of mothballing the present nukes and waste management from generation to generation to the nuclear authorities under you. See the other two URLs at
Because you have not performed the complete energy audit of your planning and implementation you are leading the nation to insolvency and terrible synergistic effects of nuclearisation. Nuclear power, no thanks. I do hope you will have the good sense to desist from going ahead with Kudankulam whose cost is a pittance compared to the debts the nation will have to bear from generation to generation. The future generations are not here to vote no.
Go ask the people for a mandate by a nation wide referendum on such an issue which has a bearing on the life of countless generations of all life.
There are good people who can take the nation away from such a suicidal path. Ask their advise and for their involvement.
Let democracy really work instead of the government allowing foodgrains to rot and Public distribution systems to go haywire.
Yes living energy will generate all that the nuclear power systems can with no consequent ill effects.
Here are the health effects of nuclear power at Kudankulam:
The following comments of mine appeared in Deccan Herald on 18 Dec2011 at
It is worse than Fukushima! 9200 MW of nukes planned for Tamilnadu means about 30000 cancer deaths per year or deaths equivalent to 15 Bhopals every year! This is some 125 percent increase due to Kudankulam from the present cancer rate in Tamilnadu(1). And for the lifetime of the reactors of some 50 years it means even during normal operations of these nukes the contribution is 1.5 million cancer deaths by KNPP alone and in Tamilnadu alone! This is as per radiation facts and simulation given by Dr John Gofman,MD and his fallout data due to atmospheric nuclear weapons tests. He was Chair of USNRC! See Health Effects of Nuclear Power at and the references cited there. It is for the right to healthy life that the people are protesting and they are taking this responsibility for all life today and for those to come on Mother Earth.Have a heart and join the fight!Peace! Peace! Peace!
Look at the report on the continuing Fukushima horror deaths at
The appeal to the PM in the top paragraph above also appeared in the Deccan Herald but was subsequently removed!

Given enough time modern civilization will destroy life.
The annual cancer death rate ball park estimates for Kudankulam are compared with those of Kaiga, Jaitapur, Gorakhpur and Kovvada in Table 1 below. We may have to contend with excess annual cancer deaths from these four nuclear parks alone of 40 Bhopals/year, a unit of Bhopal being immediate deaths wrought by the Bhopal gas disaster of about 2259.
View the figures by right clicking on the figure and opening link in new tab.

Note: The estimated number of deaths for Tamilnadu are derived as follows(See Health Effects of Nuclear Power website above): The precautionary principle is kept in mind while deriving these estimates both here and in my article cited above.

The planned nuclear plant capacity in Kudankulam is 9200 MW(2x1000,6x1200) as per 2007 NPCIL web site quoted in Wikipedia on Indian Nuclear Reactors.
The lifetime load factor is assumed at 0.8
Thus the energy capacity MW-years/year is 9200x0.8= 7360.
Radiation leak assumed 0.1 percent of annual Cs 137 isotope produced in the reactor core=3.55 Ci/MW-year.
Or Cs137 leak= 3.55 Ci/MW-y x 7360 MW-y = 26128 Ci/y
Tamilnadu 2011 population = 72138958. Area= 130058 km^2.

Intensity of Radiation mCi/y/km^2= Cs137 leak/Area km^2= (26125/130058)x 1000=
200.895 mCi/y/km^2.
Radiation Exposure= Wholebody rads/year/person= Intensity of Radiation x 0.00066=
200.895 x 0.00066= 0.132591 rads/y/person
Tamilnadu Total Person Dose= Person Rads/year=Rads exposure x population=
0.132591 x 72138958=9564954
Dose per fatal cancer 300 Rads.
Tamilnadu number of fatal cancers per year= 9564954/300= 31883.18.
Tamilnadu Cancer Death rate due to Kudankulam Reactors of 9200 MW= 31883.18/72138958 x 100000= 44.2 per 100000 population per year.
Tamilnadu overall cancer death rate at 50% of average annual cancers is 34.66 per 100000 per year(See reference 1 below).
This is 127.5% increase due to Kudankulam, if all Kudankulam reactors were present now.

Now let us turn to the effects on nuclear workers at Kudankulam. What we may be in for.
The healthy worker effect
See my comments below:
Assuming cancer death rate among nuclear npcil employees at 50% of 54.05 or 27.025 gives a standardised mortality ratio(SMR) with reference to Tamilnadu of 77.98221. Assuming healthy worker effect as given in the reference link above)
of an SMR of 57%, this represents an excess cancer SMR of 36.81% of Tamilnadu cancer death rate of 34.66/100000 per year! This is an excess cancer death rate in Tamilnadu of 12.76/100000/year! Thus the cancer death rate among NPCIL staff becomes 47.41/100000 per year or greater than my estimate for the general population of Tamilnadu of 44.2/100000/year or 31883 cancer deaths per year! See my estimates here (at ).
Note that the official estimates are based on the ICRP risk model for external irradiation which is not science, in fact pre DNA witchcraft(ECRR 2003). Internal irradiation risk is more than an order of magnitude higher. I would fervently support the general public's resistance against nuclear power plants based on science.

Original Articles
Division of Epidemiology and Cancer Registry, Cancer Institute (WIA),
Chennai 600036, Tamil Nadu, India
International Agency for Research on Cancer, Lyon 69008, France
Correspondence to R. SWAMINATHAN;
Trends in cancer incidence in Chennai city (1982–2006)
and statewide predictions of future burden in
Tamil Nadu (2007–16)
ECRR 2003. Health Effects of Ionising Radiation Exposure at Low Doses for Radiation Protection Purposes.2003(2010) recommendations of the European Committee on Radiation Risk. Ed C.Busby etal. Green Audit.p 10.p12.

Thursday, August 18, 2011

The Great Fukushima Blackhole

  • The great Fukushima blackhole
    They started from 1950. They built reactors and nuclear power programmes mushroomed in Japan, USA,France,UK, Germany,USSR..They thought every increment of nuclear power would be available to meet the load demand. They were mistaken. All the power went to feed the nuclear industry itself. 445 nuclear reactors in the world 400 GW. Not a watt available to the society outside of the nuke industry.
    After Fukushima manmade n disaster, Germany backed out and wants to phase out, Japan appears to back out,France?!?
    My analysis of the Indian situation, pre nuclear and post makes the most disturbing revelation: Fukushima is an extinction event.
    With Fukushima exposed to the biosphere through the groundwater, air,solid earth and ocean, the source radiation from the fission products may be enough to cause enough infant mortalities in India alone to make India’s human population unstable. See
    Nuclear major accident probability was claimed at 1 in 1 million per reactor year. Little did they realise that human fallibility combined with ignorance of the cumulative effects of modern civilisation would home in and cause major accidents at 10 per 20000 reactor years or 1 in every 2000 reactor years- there are some 400 reactors- which means a major accident every five years! And more as we see great earthquakes occurring when dam contents surge in cumulative fashion: See
    People the world over must come to grips with the potential holocaust and take over the reins to check the rot. The time for business as usual is over. Nuclear deal makers open your brains and have a heart!
    The problem is so acute that the cumulative effects of modern civilisation are striking at the very roots of survival of all life. Please act nations wake up. Heed for example BUSBY’S finding that it is 1000 times the radlevel at Fukushima compared to the atmospheric test fallout and act NOW. Isolate the nuclear reactors and spent fuel pools as quickly as possible from the biosphere. SOS SOS

Monday, August 8, 2011

Abandon Nuclear Power

Nuclear Reactors Pose Extinction Level Dangers And Must be Abandoned Now.

R. Ashok Kumar

draft for presentation to the members of parliament

8 August 2011

The nuclear catastrophe at Fukushima Daichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan on 11 March 2011 is exposing the world to radionuclides and heavy ionising radiation many million times that due to the atomic bombs that were exploded in Hiroshima and Nagasaki in August 1945. This exposure will last centuries. It will likely cause millions of excess infant mortalities in India alone in the years to come and millions of excess cancers in the world and many other diseases. After a massive 9 MM magnitude earthquake that occurred near the nuclear plant and tsunami, cores of three nuclear reactors-1 ,2,3 completely melted within a few hours after the earthquake after cooling systems were damaged and a meltthrough from the containment into the ground is feared. Reactors 1,3 and the spent fuel pool stored in Reactor No 4 building caught fire. The explosion of the reactor 3 caused radionuclides- the fission products to go into the atmosphere and into the jet stream exposing the world to harmful effects of radiation for many generations. Now the fuel rods stored in the reactor buildings may be the cause of measurements of radiation of more than 10 Sieverts(which cause death in a few hours to those exposed) which have been registered with the meters going off scale at this level in the plant. Applying the precautionary principle, we the undersigned request the members of parliament to prevail upon the government to abandon nuclear power forever. The reasoning for this is extremely serious - life is being threatened with extinction level events like this because of the severity of the cumulative effects of our modern consumptive ways of living- polluting the soil air and water by extraction and burning of minerals and fuels, by requiring enormous amounts of water through dams and converting fertile soil into sheds for satisfying our destructive needs. This great earthquake - which is a man made one will not be alone. Shortly, but before next June, another one is expected in the same region- the Pacific Ring of Fire which may also lead to vast and additional dangers. And more and more and so on. This is because the dangerous infrastructure we have created-nuclear reactors and dams will react with one another to continue to cause havocs. The nuclear reactors will require additional coal plants to be set up to manufacture materials so they can be constructed and this requires additional water and that means in cascade more and more dams. The enormous forces so generated have increased the frequency with which such disasters are occurring until the whole cumulative effect is a series of extinction level events. Added to this is the fact that a nuclear reactor programme anywhere is an enormous consumer of energy- so huge that in a gluttonous growth phase for additional power and water - no energy will be available for society other than that for the nuclear industry itself. And because of the slow and costly nature of the process, to make any substantial dent in meeting the needs of the economy during this phase, will likely last for generations! We must turn our backs to this kind of blind and self destructive progress now. There are many ways in which continuing in this path can be seen to be suicidal.

You may get an insight into the urgency of our plea when you notice that what Mahatma Gandhi practiced as a message, is more relevant now than ever before:

India is blessed by spiritual and physical energy. Therefore there should be production by the masses, rather than mass production of unnecessary and superfluous things. Looking at the power of human beings alone, we observe that a billion hands and legs means 100000 Megawatts(MW) of power! At 50% load factor this means 50000 MW! And note that we can return our wastes to the fields from where we got our food in a way that is acceptable to nature. The extremely dangerous nuclear power nowhere stands even a remote chance by comparison. By proper energy substitution and change of our felt needs we can do wonders without the curse of nuclear energy. As we are seeing before our very eyes, the most advanced nuclearised nation- Japan- is now in tatters and tears and they are backtracking from this devil as far as they themselves are concerned. Germany is backing off from nuclear reactors. Our parliamentarians can use this golden opportunity to turn from this destruction of life itself. And embrace what we are best endowed with- the sun’s rays- through its myriad life systems- forests, pedal power, vapour absorption air conditioning, capstan operated mechanical advantaged lifts, maintaining a proper balance between where we work and where we live and manufacturing goods when we want where we want! The transport can be better with buses, trains, trams and ships. Our coastline is vast. We can harness shipping for goods transport and save energy by up to 70 percent compared to individual road transport. Forests and groundwaters can replace many dams.

Let us not put our money in nuclear energy which is killing us. By doing so, we will become extinct.